Saturday, November 19, 2011

The Bessarabian Stakes (G3) at Woodbine

Of the nine horses entered in the Bessarabian Stakes at Woodbine, only six have a legitimate shot at finding the winner's circle. ZERMATT has been solid in her last five starts, winning two of them and losing the other three by less than a combined length. This represents a class hike, but could be there with her best effort. ARIANA D is a late runner who should see a favorable pace scenario with plenty of speed here. She was a neck behind MUSICAL ROMANCE in September. MULLINS BEACH probably needed her last and should improve in her second start off a layoff. She has seen similar improvement in the past. EMBUR'S SONG will gun it from the get-go and will be a contender for win honors. HAPPY WEEK is making the 2nd start of her form cycle after winning a 100k optional claimer last out over the Keeneland Polytrack. The Pletcher runner has every right to improve. Finally, ATLANTIC HURRICANE is a versatile runner who doesn't need to be on the lead and should be the one trying to hold off ARIANA D late.

I am going to play several exactas excluding the likely favorite, EMBUR'S SONG, figuring this one will succumb to a lively pace up front. We'll box ATLANTIC HURRICANE and ARIANA D for $10 and then play those two over HAPPY WEEK and ZERMATT for $10 and $5, respectively. That's a $50 total play for Sunday's only graded stakes event.

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