$250k Guaranteed Pick 4 at Aqueduct: Live Blog

I'll be live blogging during the Aqueduct Pick 4 sequence, updating this post throughout the four races. I am putting together some alternative Pick 4 plays in case my selections don't come through in the Demoiselle.

Between 2:22pm EST and 4:42pm EST, we'll have seven graded stakes go to post beginning with the aforementioned Demoiselle and ending with the G2 Golden Rod Stakes at Churchill Downs. There are three more graded stakes events this evening between 5:42pm EST and 7:38pm EST, highlighted by a couple of G2s from Churchill Downs and Hollywood Park.

With all apologies to the Claiming Crown, welcome to the last major day of racing in 2011!

Updated 2:35pm EST: My top selection in the Demoiselle failed to run today and finished last, leaving me to whittle down my pick 4 play. I have settled on the following "A" horses for each race: 1,7/3/2,6,8/5,7,9; and these "C" horses: 3,10/1,4/4,5,7,10/3,6,8. To hit the pick 4, I'll need all "A" horses to come through or three "As" and one "C". My all "A" ticket will be for $1.5 and the remaining four tickets will be the minimum of $.50 for a total play of $75. I have 20 horses live in my wagers.

Updated 3:00pm EST: So much for that. The word was out on O'PRADO AGAIN as that one opened up at 5-2 and went off at 7-1 from his 15-1 ML. I guess you can say that he had a win at the distance and put in a solid workout on Nov 19th, but I didn't see this one getting up first in this one. That's horse racing, especially at the 2yo level. I won't let my handicapping of the next two races go to waste as I may put a small win bet on HAYNESFIELD and try to find a price in the Gazelle.

Updated 3:12pm EST: I eschewed the win bet on HAYNESFIELD in favor of an exacta play while taking a stand against TO HONOR AND SERVE. There have been a handful of also-rans from the BC that have returned recently and put in poor performances. I think this one will join that trend. I'll play a $10 exacta HAYNESFIELD over the entry and HYMN BOOK and reverse it for $5.

Updated 3:26pm EST: It's not my day. The horse I took a stand against, the 3yo TO HONOR AND SERVE, beat older horses fairly easily with one of my underneath horses, HYMN BOOK, coming through for the place. I may be down, but not out. I'll be back with a selection in the Gazelle.

Updated 3:49pm EST: I settled on LOVE AND PRIDE in a $20 WP wager. I think she has more tactical speed than you see on paper and will get the jump on the speed. I backed that up with a tri wheel, keying R GYPSY GOLD over the 1,7,8 over the field for a total investment of $64.

Updated 4:02pm EST: That hurt, too. LOVE AND PRIDE was run down by the unbeaten filly AWESOME FEATHER and got nipped for the place in the final jumps, costing me a consolation. I'm now down to my final $18 before I need to reload and will look to beat the heavy favorite in the G3 Fred W Hooper Handicap at Calder. I'll play JIMANATOR over MAMBO MEISTER for $15 and reverse it for $3. MAMBO MEISTER should handle the field, but JIMANATOR looks like he is in good form and the top choice for the upset.

Updated 4:26pm EST: We dodged the reload bullet when JIMANATOR was all out to run down 2-5 favorite MAMBO MEISTER, returning $109.50 on my $15 exacta. I'll take some of those winnings and put a $25 WP wager on SIMMARD, who invades Florida for Roger Attfield, who won a turf stakes earlier this week with a similar invader at Calder Race Course. SIMMARD is currently 9-1.

Updated 4:49pm EST: I should have just played the Roger Attfield exacta as MUSKETIER took the easy route up the hedge to get past stablemate SIMMARD as those two run 1-2 for a $49.60 exacta. I get back $82.50 for the place wager, but gave $50 awau when hooked on Woodbine shippers, putting $25 WP on SPIRITED MISS in G2 Golden Rod Stakes at Churchill Downs. ON FIRE BABY took that one, which was a logical selection based off her win in the G2 Pocahontas at the same track. We get a little bit of a breather before the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club in approximately 50 minutes.

Boosting the Bankroll

The G2 Demoiselle for 2yo fillies at Aqueduct represents the last chance to build my bankroll prior to the pick 4 starting in the 7th race, the G2 Remsen Stakes for 2yo colts.

The field for this one is less than desirable. The top Beyer in the field was posted by DISPOSABLEPLEASURE in a 11-length Maiden Special Weight victory at Belmont for Todd Pletcher, and six of the ten horses have failed to break 70 in their brief careers. Only a handful of runners catch my attention here:

CAPTIVATING LASS won a 1 mile 70 yard race at Parx in her debut and is out of A.P. INDY so the added distance should not be an issue. She is eligible to improve in her 2nd career start under the care of Kiaran McLaughlin.

WILDCAT'S SMILE hasn't done anything wrong in three minor stakes for NY breds, including a win the NY Breeders Futurity against the boys. The only problem, two of those races came at Finger Lakes, however she has been steadily improving.

AWALKINTHEMOONLITE tries dirt for the first time after winning the Gold Digger Stakes on the turf at Hawthorne. This one comes from the clouds and may not have the early fractions to run at.

LADY COHIBA is unbeaten in two starts, including the May Night Stakes in the slop at Aqueduct. She's part of an entry with recent maiden winner WEE PARTY.

INDYNIABLE may be my eventual play. This daughter of A.P. INDY won a seven furlong maiden race at Keeneland in October and travels to NY for Christophe Clement specifically for this race. She should relish the extra distance and has every right to improve in her third career start.

I will use that one on top and bottom of exacta plays with the ML favorite, CAPTIVATING LASS, and WILDCAT'S SMILE for $5.

An Early Look at the Pick 4 Sequence

34 runners are entered and escaped the morning scratch list for the $250k guaranteed pick 4 at Aqueduct today and through my first pass, I have only completely eliminated nine runners. My early grid looks like this:

Race A B C

7 1,7 9 2,3,4,10

8 3 5 1,4

9 2,6,8 7 4,5,10

10 5,7,9 8 3,6

If I play $.50 cent tickets, I can use every horse above and have $2 on all As, $1.5 on all As and one B, $1 on two As and two Bs, and $.50 on all As and one C for an investment of $174.50. That will consume the majority of my bankroll and may leave me on the outside looking in of the final six graded stakes later this afternoon.

I really like HAYNESFIELD in the Cigar Mile. He likes Aqueduct and is making his 2nd start off a layoff. While a mile may not be his ideal distance, he finished 2nd in this race last year. If he rates and can make one big run late, he can take this weak grade 1 race whose ML favorite is a 3yo with one G2 win in 2011.

EDIT: I'll work on the table formatting for future posts.

A Tough Beat

First, just a quick look back at yesterday's races before we jump into today's busy afternoon with ten graded stakes at four different tracks, including four at Aqueduct for Cigar Mile Day.

SUMMER SOIREE did what was expected in the G1 Matriarch at Hollywood Park, getting a jump on the field and using her quick early speed to try to wire the field. However, one of the horses I used underneath, STAR BILLING, slipped through on the inside and battled my top choice through the entire stretch, getting up in the final strides. It was the only race all day that I did not reverse my exacta play and it cost me. The $1 exacta with the $23.80 horse on top paid $71.60, costing me over $350 for not playing the $5 backup exacta wheel.

In the end, I went 0-for-5 and saw my bankroll dip to $215. That's not the kind of scenario I was hoping for, especially kicking the day off with a potential pk4 play at Aqueduct.

In other races, MORE THAN LOVE won the Miesque Stakes at Hollywood Park, paying $4 to win. My choice, KATIE'S TEN, appeared to not take to the turf as expected and finished 6th of seven. LOVELY LIL led every step of the way and took the Go For Wand Stakes at Aqueduct as the longest shot in the field, returning $33.80 to win and $101.50 in the exacta with the favorite, ALL DUE RESPECT. At Golden Gate, OUR NAUTIQUE took the All American Stakes over the always-a-bridesmaid-never-a-bride BOLD CHIEFTIAN in a logical 1-2 finish. I tried to get too cute with this one, using the longest shot in the field over the 1-2-3 finishers in an exacta play, but my horse finished next to last. The $1 exacta in the 6-horse field paid a nice $18.70.

WISE DAN won the G1 Clark Handicap, which didn't do anything to clear up the muddied Horse of the Year race. WISE DAN made his move around the far turn and won easily with unusable MISSION IMPAZIBLE second and the disappointing-at-Churchill-Downs FLAT OUT third. WISE DAN returned $11.00 to his faithful backers. I had this one on top in my trifecta, but threw out the place horse and tried to take the trifecta without the favorite hitting the board. It paid $375.60.

So, a close but no cigar day yesterday leaving me with work to do in order for me to build my bankroll back up. I'll return later with thoughts on today's graded stakes (and maybe even a n1x allowance race for NY breds as the final leg in today's $250k guaranteed pick 4 at Aqueduct).

A Friday Evening Nightcap

The G3 All American Stakes, a 1 1/8 mile affair on dirt at Golden Gate, drew just six entrants. BOLD CHIEFTAIN won his last start, a 50k minor stakes, after finishing 2nd in four straight races, including the G3 Berkley here at this track. Russell Baze gets the call and he's been hot, winning 11 races in the last week. Despite the 2-1 ML favoritism, BOLD CHIEFTAIN faces a couple of horses who have finished ahead of him here. UH OH BANGO edged in front by a head in the Berkley race back in May, but finished 2nd to the ML favorite last out. OUR NAUTIQUE has beaten BOLD CHIEFTAIN three times, this year, most recently in an allowance race here in September. These three are joined by DUNMORE EAST (winner of two straight, an allowance race and optional claimer), longshot HIGHWAY BANDIT (fourth behind three others here last out), and SKIPSHOT (winner of the G2 Swaps in 2010 but hasn't won since).

BOLD CHIEFTAIN might actually be closer to the front here than he is used to and may not be able to hold off some of the runners who do their best running late. I expect DUNMORE EAST and OUR NAUTIQUE to pass this one late. Depending on the pace scenario, HIGHWAY BANDIT may get a run, too, and is eligible to improve 2nd off layoff. We'll play this one on top of DUNMORE EAST, BOLD CHIEFTAIN, and OUR NAUTIQUE in a small $5 exacta wheel.

Finally, in the G1 Matriarch Stakes for fillies and mare 3yo and up contested at one mile on the turf at Hollywood Park, we get a field of nine females, many of which have had success in graded stakes in the past. UNBRIDLED HUMOR won a G3 race at Belmont two back and ships to California for trainer Graham Motion. SUMMER SOIREE won the G1 Del Mar Oaks in August before going to Keeneland and finishing 5th in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup. She's never gone the distance, mostly running longer, and shortening up should not be an issue. QUIET OASIS missed by a nose in a G3 race at Santa Anita two back and is making her 2nd start off the layoff. MADERA CASTANA was last of eight in the G1 Gamely in May and is a longshot here. GYPSY'S WARNING won this race last year, but has been largely disappointing in 2011. ALL STAR HEART has two straight wins under her belt, including the G2 Las Palmas at Santa Anita three weeks ago. She's also won five of her last six. STAR BILLING was 2nd in the G1 Del Mar Oaks before finishing a well beaten 6th in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup in her last start. NEVER RETREAT has won two straight and ships in from Keeneland after winning the G1 Fast Lady there. UP IN TIME won a G3 race in his last start, the first since mid-August for the Simon Callaghan-trained runner.

In another race which promises to have some degree of early speed, I expect SUMMER SOIREE to be out front and wire this field. I'll back that opinion up with one exacta play: $10 SUMMER SOIREE over NEVER RETREAT, STAR BILLING, and QUIET OASIS. That's a $30 investment giving me a total of $146 on today's five races. We'll be back later today or tomorrow with a recap and a look at Saturday's heavy slate of racing.

Looking For Prices

The G3 Miesque Stakes for 2yo fillies drew a field of eight for the one mile turf race, including one horse coming over from Great Britain. ISLAND PARADISE is 3-1 on the morning line and owns an allowance win on the sythetic surface at Kempton Park. Her running style has her tracking the leaders and making one run at the 1/4 pole. She should be able to handle the turf for Charles Hills and Joel Rosario. The field also includes 2-for-2 YOUR SPECIAL DAY who has won both races coming from the clouds, but she is also making her turf debut.

STARSHIP FLARE switches barns and invades from Calder Race Course for this. She finished 6th in a starter allowance race on the lawn in her last start. REGAL BETTY was well beaten in the G1 Oakleaf and has three starts on synthetic surfaces. She attracts Joe Talamo for this, her turf debut. KATIE'S TEN is a longshot for Alonso Quinonez and John Sadler who is coming off a 4th place finish in the Golden Gate Debutante. She is making her turf debut for ROCK HARD TEN, who has done well with turf runners in the past.

The ML favorite is ASSATEAGUE who last out broke her maiden in her third career race, all coming on the turf. The Michael Matz runner was bred for this stuff, out of STORMY ATLANTIC. Julien Leparoux is aboard. MORE THAN LOVE will also attract some action on the tote board based off her maiden score on the Belmont lawn. East Coast turf runners are generally more highly regarded than their West Coast counterparts. The field is completed by RAESUNBRIDLEDFAITH who is another making her turf debut in a graded event. She won a starter allowance two back at Santa Anita and finished 3rd in the California Cup Juvenile Filly race.

I'll take a stand against the favorite here, who may want to go wire-to-wire and may not get an ideal setup. I'll take a shot with the Sadler/Quinonez runner, KATIE'S TEN, who should like the grass, the distance, and the race setup with five horses looking to be up front early. I'll put a little more into this race, with a $20 WP wager along with a $5 exacta wheel, ASSATEAGUE and MORE THAN LOVE over KATIE's TEN for a total investment of $50.

The G1 Clark Handicap features a handful of BC Classic and many other big names from this year's older horse division and could still have a hand in deciding the Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year. The top attractions are RULER ON ICE, third in the BC Classic; FLAT OUT, fifth in the BC Classic; and WISE DAN, winner of the G2 Fayette last out. RULER ON ICE has yet to win at the 1 1/8 distance but has two seconds and a third in three attempts. A win here would secure the 3yo Horse of the Year Eclipse Award.

Some of the other contestants include ALMA D'ORO, 2nd in the G3 Ack Ack Handicap on the BC undercard; DEMARCATION, a disappointing fifth in that same race; STATELY VICTOR, 5th in the BC Turf and looking for his first win of 2011; MISSION IMPAZIBLE, always takes money and never rewards his backers; PLEASANT PRINCE, 4th in the BC Marathon last out; HEADACHE, last in the BC Classic but winner of the G2 Hawthorne Gold Cup two back and owner of a 8-3-1-1 record at Churchill Downs; MISTER MARTI GRAS, winner of the G3 Ack Ack Handicap at just under 3-1; WILL'S WILDCAT, winner of the Jimmy V Stakes on the BC undercard; PRAYER FOR RELIEF, winner of the Super Derby, West Virginia Derby, and Iowa Derby and has four wins in five starts this year; and GENERAL QUARTERS, who hasn't won since the G1 Turf Classic at Churchill Downs on Derby Day in 2010.

A closer look at a couple of the logical winners, WISE DAN is coming off a win in the G2 Fayette and also won a stakes race at Presque Isle Downs and the G2 Firecracker Handicap at this race track. He answered the distance question last out and has every right to come back with a winning effort here. FLAT OUT had to alter course in the BC Classic at the 1/8th pole, but probably didn't factor in the result. Nevertheless, this one won the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at 1 1/4 miles and the G2 Suburban Handicap at 1 1/8 miles. He is 0-for-2 this year at Churchill Downs, and could be a vulnerable favorite.

I don't have a strong enough opinion about any horse in this field, so I'll go fishing for a trifecta. My first pass at the field only presented four complete tosses: DEMARCATION, STATELY VICTOR, MISSION IMPAZIBLE, and WILL'S WILDCAT. For the top spot, I'll look at WISE DAN, PRAYER FOR RELIEF, HEADACHE, and RULER ON ICE. I'll use those four in the top two spots and then go deep in the third hole with those four plus ALMA D'ORO, MISTER MARTI GRAS, and GENERAL QUARTERS. I'll knock that down to $.50 for a manageable investment of $30.

EDIT: ASSATEAGUE scratched from the Miesque Stakes at Hollywood, so I'll use ISLAND PARADISE on top in my exacta play listed above.

G2 Go For Wand Handicap at Aqueduct

The G2 Go For Wand Handicap at Aqueduct attracted a field of nine for the one mile race on the dirt, including ARENA ELVIRA, winner of the G2 Fall City Handicap at Churchill Downs, so I really expect only eight in the starting gate today. Here's a look at the field:

LOVELY LIL finished 3rd in a G2 race two back at Belmont Park and 2nd in a statebred minor stakes race last out. She's going for her 2nd try at the mile distance after finishing 2nd in her lone start in a n2x allowance race at Philadelphis Park in 2010.

RISKY RACHEL has won two straight including the same statebred minor stakes race that LOVELY LIL is coming out of (The Iroquois Stakes). Two back, she ran away with an optional claiming race for non winners of two at Saratoga. This marks her graded stakes debut.

ALL DUE RESPECT is coming back off a layoff after finishing 3rd in the Latroiene on the Kentucky Oaks undercard this past May. She has ran well off layoffs before and Richard Dutrow is available to saddle her here. She's looking for her 2nd win of 2011 and first graded stakes victory. She will likely be on or near the lead early.

KATY NOW is stepping up to graded company for the second time after a trio of failed efforts in 2010. She comes into this one off a victory in the Dispute Stakes at Belmont in September for Todd Pletcher. She's in good form this time and poses the greatest threat to likely favorite ALL DUE RESPECT.

INDIAN LEGEND took a 250k ungraded event at Parx in May after winning a n2x allowance race, but has done little since leaving that track. In three starts since, she has finished no better than 4th.

SPA CITY PRINCESS hasn't won since taking a statebred stakes race at Aqueduct in April of this year, but has been close recently in other statebred stakes races. This represents a class jump for this one, but she did manage a 3rd and 4th place finish in graded events over the summer.

PERSUADING has early speed and is coming off two straight 4th place finishes against graded company. She owns one win this year, taking an optional claiming race at Churchill Downs in June. Another one who will have to step up here.

C C'S PAL showed the ability to rate for Richard Dutrow in her first start for that barn last out, winning a minor stakes race at Belmont Park. Could be a value play under her new connections.

There is a number of horses in here that like to be on or near the lead. ALL DUE RESPECT is the class of the field, but she has been out for 200+ days and could be vulnerable. I'll try to beat her with C C'S PAL and KATY NOW in several exacta plays. I'll play a $5 exacta wheel with C C'S PAL, KATY NOW and PERSUADING over ALL DUE RESPECT and then box the three on top in a separate $1 exacta for a total investment of $21. We'll be back later with a recap and a look at the remaining graded stakes today.

A Recap of Thanksgiving Day Racing

In the My Charmer Handicap at Calder Race Course, odds-on favorite DENOMINATION set soft early fractions with CALLMETHESQUEEZE and TRIP FOR A.J. stalking close behind much of the way. Things looked good for me at the 1/4 pole as these three were side-by-side across the track. But, OREGON LADY slipped through on the inside as TRIP FOR A.J. took the lead. In deep stretch, OREGON LADY ($7.80), ridden by Paco Lopez and trained by Roger Attfield, broke through, took the lead, and won by a neck over TRIP FOR A.J. while SNOW TOP MOUNTAIN rallied for third ahead of DENOMINATION. The exacta paid $41 and the trifecta returned $186. My exacta finished 2-4-5 so I didn't make too much of a mess of this one, but a loss is a loss.

SUNRISE SMARTY set wicked fractions early, running the half in 44.31 but somehow managed to save enough to hold off FLAT BOLD and NATHAN'S H Q, whose last gasp effort to catch the winner came up just a bit short in the Fall Highweight Handicap at Aqueduct. All three of Pletcher's horses were scratched along with FRAZIL and PARENT'S HONOR. SUNRISE SMARTY, the son of SMARTY JONES, was bet down to 2-1 and his main threat, GENERAL MAXIMUS, was pulled up around the far turn. Ramon Dominguez was aboard the winner for trainer Michael Hushion. SUNRISE SMARTY retuned $6.90 to win and keyed exotic payouts of $26.00 and $65.00 for the exacta and trifecta, respectively. Despite liking the eventual winner, I stayed out of this one partly due to the short field and the 2-1 odds on my selection. I doubt I would have come up with NATHAN'S H Q underneath, either.

The loose early lead for JUANITA in the Fall City Handicap did not materialize as FLEETING LADY provided enough early pressure on my top selection. ARENA ELVIRA took up a nice stalking trip on the inside and came out in the stretch and took the lead from FLEETING LADY in deep stretch as JUANITA gave way mid stretch. IT'S TEA TIME came late to grab show honors. Junior Alvarado was aboard the winner who gave Bill Mott his 4th win in the Fall City Handicap. The favorite paid just $4.00 to win, but the exacta returned $43.80 with the 13-1 shot running a game 2nd. The trifecta with the odds-on favorite on top paid a robust $419.00. JUANITA hung on for 4th but my other selection, SECRET FILE, was never in it finishing 2nd to last.

With just one graded stakes race left and 0-for-2 with my wagering selections, I needed a victory in Hollywood Prevue to make a small profit or at least break even. SO BRILLIANT broke away sharply and took the early lead along with HODGE and GALEX. GALEX broke down entering the far turn as SO BRILLIANT took a neck in front and turned away SHEER TALENT. BROTHER FRANCIS came with a run and tried to run down the leader, but was a little too late and finished 2nd by a neck. 21-1 longshot HODGE held 3rd over SHEER TALENT and EMPIRE WAY failed to fire in this one, finishing 6th and last among those that finished the race. SO BRILLIANT was bet down to 7-5 by the knowledgeable West Coast handicappers and paid $4.80 to win. The $1 exacta returned $12.50 and the $1 trifecta paid $84.90. Garrett Gomez was aboard the winner who was trained by Dan Hendricks. SO BRLLIANT could be a solid 3yo sprinter next year, but I'm not sure if the son of MEDAGLIA D'ORO has the endurance of tactical speed to cause much trouble in the Triple Crown races. BROTHER FRANCIS, on the other hand, may just get better as he gets more distance to work with. I had $6 either way on the top two finishers in the exacta, giving me a $75 win and a huge profit on the day of $1. I'll take the push as there are five graded stakes races today and a feast of them waiting for me on Saturday.

It was a chalky day with the four winners paying $7.80, $6.90, $4.00, and $4.80 to win, but there was money to be made in the exotic pools if you could have put together the right longshots. I'll be back later today with my thoughts and wagering strategies on today's races and may even do some live blogging since I was able to get my Black Friday shopping out of the way last night.

Turkey, Pigskin and Thoroughbreds

Happy Thanksgiving. Are you ready for some thoroughbred racing? Forget the football, we get a little taste of the 15+ graded stakes to be run over the weekend with four graded events. The weekend action includes four graded events at Aqueduct, where I am hoping for a all graded stakes pick 4. The Aqueduct card is highlighted by two grade 1 races, the Cigar Mile and the Gazelle Stakes. But first, my thoughts on today's races.

We kick off with the G3 My Charmer Handicap for fillies and mares, 3yos and upward, contested at 1 1/8 miles on turf at Calder Race Course. The race is loaded with minor stakes winners and morning line favorite DENOMINATION, who has three G3 victories in 2011. Her lone off-the-board finish this year was back in April in a G3 event on the Polytrack. She is making her 2nd start off a layoff, her comeback effort produced a win in the G3 Athenia at Belmont Park. This one travels everywhere for Christophe Clement and Joe Bravo returns to ride. SNOW TOP MOUNTAIN adds blinkers for the first time after missing by a head in an allowance optional claimer at Keeneland. This one took the Kentucky Cup Ladies Turf at Churchill two back. GRECIAN MAIDEN owns two minor stakes victories since September 2010, but failed to show anything in her most recent start at Keeneland in October. TRIP FOR A.J. is a minor stakes race machine on the Florida circuit, with three wins since March. This one hasn't been on the turf since May, but did take the Turf Distaff on the grass at Tampa Bay Downs in April and owns a 6-3-2-1 record on the Calder Turf. Another one that shows an affinity for the Calder lawn, CALLMETHESQUEEZE boasts a 4-3-1-0 record on this course but will try today's distance for the first time. This improving filly has two minor stakes victories this year. TESORO DE AMOR is the only winless horse in 2011 in this field, but has run in the G1 Spinster (9th) and a G2 race at Monmouth Park (5th), both on the dirt. This one returns to the turf for the first time since April and owns a 7-1-0-1 record on the lawn, the lone win coming at Calder. OREGON LADY is coming off her first stakes victory and career best effort in the River Memorial at Woodbine and her only two off-the-board finishes in 2011 came in graded events. This one is 4-1 on the morning line off her latest effort and could be a stand against here. PERFORMING has four wins in 2011 but all of them in allowance and optional claiming events. In two stakes tries, she has finished 3rd and a well beaten 4th in her most recent outing, which was an off-the-turf stakes race here at Calder.

This appears to be a very contentious race on paper and one that I don't have a firm opinion on. DENOMINATION looks to be the obvious choice, but we'll just make a small action play, trying to beat that one. We'll use two horses that have had success at Calder, TRIP FOR A.J. and CALLMETHESQUEEZE, and use them in a small $5 exacta wheel over DENOMINATION. I have over $360 in my bankroll and I would like to have a good chunk for a possible pick 4 play on Saturday. Unless I see something I truly have a strong opinion on, I'll play some action bets to try to boost the bankroll a bit.

I may just skip the G3 Fall Highweight Handicap at Aqueduct. The Todd Pletcher pre-entered three horses in this one, but may not send any of them to the gate. CAIXA ELETRONICA and CALIBRACHOA have both been entered in the Cigar Mile on Saturday and Pletcher already told the press that DRIVEN BY SUCCESS will not run. In addition, both Tony Dutrow and Carl Doran may not run their entrants, PARENT'S HONOR and ESCROW KID. Of the horses that are certain to run, FRAZIL and FLAT BOLD have wins in the muck, which is what Aqueduct may look like later today. ESCROW KID is 2-for-2 in the mud, so an off track may entice his connections to run him. GENERAL MAXIMUS ran well in his return effort in the statebred Hudson Stakes, his first start since June. NATHAN'S H Q hasn't won a race since taking a 80k optional claimer at Gulfstream Park in February, but hasn't disgraced himself in five stakes tries since then. SUNRISE SMARTY hasn't tried mud yet, but the son of SMARTY JONES may benefit from an off track, as well.

Without knowing who is going to post in this one, it's tough to really make a play. There is a lot of early speed and pace pressers in this one, which could set things up for FLAT BOLD. Closer to post time and depending on odds and who's in the race, I'll either put a flier on FLAT BOLD or SUNRISE SMARTY.

The G2 Fall City Handicap features the final race of SUPER ESPRESSO's career. The 4yo filly finished 7th in the BC Ladies Classic and 10th in the G1 Spinster in her two most recent starts. She hasn't won since the Preakness undercard where she took the G3 Dupont Distaaff. If not for the presence of ARENA ELVIRA, this one would be the class of the field, but her recent form suggests she probably won't go out in style. ARENA ELVIRA may not have run in the big races yet, but won her graded stakes debut at Aqueduct and has won three straight and six of eight. IT'S TEA TIME finished 4th in the 2010 BC Ladies Classic but hasn't won since a G3 victory at Saratoga in August of that year. Even in her two latest tries, an allowance race and optional claimer event, she only managed 2nd place in both. RIVIERA CHIC beat three horses home in her two G3 tries combined. SPRING PARTY didn't fare much better, beating a total of six horses in three G3 tries. Speedball JUANITA is coming off a gate-to-wire win in the G2 Indiana Oaks at Hoosier Park that saw the place and show runners return to win next out. BRUSHED BY A STAR won an n1x race in the slop at Churchill, her 2nd win in 11 tries and her connections see fit to try her in a G2 race. SECRET FILE finished 2nd in her only other graded stakes start, but has won three of her last six starts and finshed off the board in just one of those. AFLEETING LADY is coming off a optional claiming victory and finished 3rd in a minor stakes race two back. Finally, RAVI'S SONG is making her 2nd start since July and finished 2nd in the G3 Cardinal Handicap last out.. She probably needed that one and has been close in G3 events over the summer. She was 5th in the G2 Latroiene Stakes on the Derby undercard in May.

I'll take a shot at the lone true speed in this race, JUANITA, who figures to get out in front of ARENA ELVIRA. SUPER ESPRESSO should be mid-pack and RAVI'S SONG and SECRET FILE should be coming late. I'll play two exacta wheels, a $10 JUANITA over ARENA ELVIRA and RAVI'S SONG and reverse that for $5. The total investment for this race: $30.

The finale is the G3 Hollywood Prevue, run at seven furlongs, for the top 2yos on the West Coast at Hollywood Park. BROTHER FRANCIS closed with a fury at 5.5f in his debut for James Cassidy and should appreciate the extra distance here. The maiden just missed by less than a length to HODGE, who also shows up here. HODGE held on at 5.5f in his 2nd start, but faded to 6th in his debut at 6.5f. EMPIRE WAY was ridden out in his debut and the son of EMPIRE MAKER has big plans in the future if all goes well here. SO BRILLIANT was, well, so brilliant in his debut, as well, dueling early through swift fractions and drawing clear late. GALEX was 2nd to SECRET CIRCLE, who went on to finish 2nd in the BC Juvenile earlier this month. MUCHOS BESOS took a 75k maiden claimer last out and steps up big time here for Mike Puype. I am not high on SHEER TALENT and Kayla Stra. This won was 3+ lengths behind DRILL two back but returned to finish 7th of nine in a minor stakes race at Golden Gate.

I like three horses here, the two favorites EMPIRE WAY and SO BRILLIANT along with BROTHER FRANCIS. I'll try to split the two favorites with the 8-1 ML shot in another pair of exactas: $6 EMPIRE WAY and SO BRILLIANT over BROTHER FRANCIS and reversed for the same amount, giving me a total investment on this race of $24.

If I stay out of the Fall Highweight at Aqueduct, I'll have $64 invested in today's races, leaving me with around $300 for Fri-Sat-Sun. I'll be back with a recap and a look at tomorrow's races.

Edit: RAVI'S SONG was scratched in the Fall City Handicap, so I took SECRET FILE in her place. I also backed up the $5 exacta in the Calder Race with the reversed exacta for the same price. I now have $74 invested in today's races.

A Look Back

Let's take a look at last weekend's graded stakes action...

ESSENCE HIT MAN was clear the entire way and gamely held off the late challenge by GYPSY RING to take the G3 Kennedy Road Stakes at Woodbine, covering the six furlongs in 1:08.75. SIGNATURE RED got up late for 3rd over a tiring HOLLYWOOD HIT in a cleanly run race. The very hittable trifecta paid $385.00 in the six horse field. ESSENCE HIT MAN, trained by Audre Cappucitti and ridden by Jesse Campbell, was allowed to get loose on the lead and will be interesting to see where this horse ends up next. His last three wins have been of the wire-to-wire variety and could be a bet against in a field with a little more early speed.

In the G3 Discovery Handicap at Aqueduct, GHOST GUNNER was sent out to the lead, but gave way to REDEEMED heading into the stretch. GHOST GUNNER eventually pulled up while REDEEMED and SOCIALSAUL ran to the front. RAISON D'ETAT also challenged and briefly got past SOCIALSAUL before that one rerallied to finish 2nd. REDEEMED showed his class and was much the best. ARTHUR'S TALE, last spring's Wood Memorial runner-up, clunked up for 4th. 32-1 longshot PHILLY ACE stumbled leaving the gate, losing all hope for those chasing a big price. REDEEMED paid $4.90 to win and keyed a $23.00 exacta with logical play SOCIALSAUL. RAISON D'ETAT filled out the $64.00 trifecta. The recently temporarily unsuspended Richard Dutrow trained the winner which was ridden by Edgar Prado.

GLEAM OF HOPE was squeezed at the start of the G3 River City Handicap at Churchill Downs as Calvin Borel and ZIMMER shot to the front early. Eventual winner BLUES STREET settled near the rear and made a wide move around the turn entering the stretch to corral ZIMMER and then held off a late challenge by ALLIE'S EVENT to win his 10th career race. Making his 2nd start under the care of Eddie Kenneally, BLUE STREET went the 1 1/8 miles in 1:51.72 with Robby Albarado aboard. This one is a former G2 winner who went to the post of the G1 Turf Classic at Churchill Downs at a shade under 4-1 on Derby Day 2010 (he finished 5th). After a poor showing at Saratoga, it looks like the seven year old gelding out of STREET CRY has found his step again and will be interesting to see where his new connections send this one for his next challenge.

In the first of two graded stakes races at Delta Downs, NOW I KNOW set taxing early fractions in the G3 Delta Downs Princess Stakes and it looked like the favorite, CANDREA, was primed to make a move and gun her down around the far turn. But that one bottomed out and NOW I KNOW ran away from the rest of them, impressively, finishing the one mile race in 1:39.60. It was close for 2nd between INNY MINNIE and longshot YVETE SANGALO. NOW I KNOW, trained by Don Von Hemel and ridden by Perry Compton, returned $9.80 to win and set up $80.80 exacta and $1,184.00 trifecta payouts. The winner shipped in from Retama Park, where the 2yo filly won her first four races and is now unbeaten in five starts.

The 2yo boys were up next in the G3 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes, this one at 1 1/16 miles. DRILL and MY ADONIS went out quick early in a frantic speed duel, going the first quarter mile in 22 flat. Both were well cooked after a half in a couple ticks over 45. BASMATI had first crack at the fading leaders and took the lead briefly before SABERCAT came flying late to run him down. LONGVIEW DRIVE finished third in a race that featured a $164.40 exacta and $1,203.20 trifecta. Gerard Melancon was aboard the Steve Asmussen-trained winner who was making his graded stakes debut after winning the Garden State Stakes at Monmouth Park in October. SABERCAT has now won three straight races in varying fashion: he wired a field of non-winners two back at Monmouth, set just off the pace in the Garden State, and came from well back in the Delta Downs Jackpot. The 2yo out of BLUEGRASS CAT will have more than enough earnings to secure a spot in the starting gate of the 2012 Kentucky Derby if that's the route his connections choose.

SANAGAS was much the best in the G1 Hollywood Turf Cup at Hollywood Park, sitting three wide throughout and unleashing a furious run entering the far turn and running away from the field in his G1 debut. BOURBON BAY was able to get up for 2nd while FALCON ROCK finished third. The very logical $1 exacta returned $7.70 and the trifecta wasn't much better at $38.80 per dollar. SANAGAS, with Rajiv Maragh, won his 2nd straight race after capturing the off-the-turf G3 Sycamore at Keeneland in October. The former German runner will need to back this win up against a tougher field with all sorts of question marks regarding the level of competition the Graham Motion runner faced here.

I'll be back later with a look at the Thanksgiving Day graded stakes action.

The Bessarabian Stakes (G3) at Woodbine

Of the nine horses entered in the Bessarabian Stakes at Woodbine, only six have a legitimate shot at finding the winner's circle. ZERMATT has been solid in her last five starts, winning two of them and losing the other three by less than a combined length. This represents a class hike, but could be there with her best effort. ARIANA D is a late runner who should see a favorable pace scenario with plenty of speed here. She was a neck behind MUSICAL ROMANCE in September. MULLINS BEACH probably needed her last and should improve in her second start off a layoff. She has seen similar improvement in the past. EMBUR'S SONG will gun it from the get-go and will be a contender for win honors. HAPPY WEEK is making the 2nd start of her form cycle after winning a 100k optional claimer last out over the Keeneland Polytrack. The Pletcher runner has every right to improve. Finally, ATLANTIC HURRICANE is a versatile runner who doesn't need to be on the lead and should be the one trying to hold off ARIANA D late.

I am going to play several exactas excluding the likely favorite, EMBUR'S SONG, figuring this one will succumb to a lively pace up front. We'll box ATLANTIC HURRICANE and ARIANA D for $10 and then play those two over HAPPY WEEK and ZERMATT for $10 and $5, respectively. That's a $50 total play for Sunday's only graded stakes event.

Poor First Time Blogger Record

Apparently, I have a poor record when it comes to first time blogging. Real life got in the way this afternoon which led to missing several stakes races this afternoon. Anyway, here's a recap of today's limited wagering action.

In the Kennedy Road Stakes at Woodbine, ESSENCE HIT MAN held off my top pick, GYPSY KING (I am assuming since I have not seen the replay yet) which triggered a $66.50 exacta. I guess I should have boxed my selections.

I was midway through the Discovery Handicap when I was called away and I really don't think I would have come up with anything other than the eventual winner, REDEEMED, who looked much the best on paper. Who knows how I would have played the race and would I have come up with the exacta or trifecta? We'll just let that one simmer.

I returned in time to put together a selection in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes. I really thought there was a lot of speed in this race and I was not too keen on 2yos returning after running in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, so I landed on a 8-1 shot and a couple of longshots that I boxed in a $2 trifecta. Since I hadn't played any other races today, I also put $25 WP on my 8-1 top pick, SABERCAT, and was thrilled to see that one look much the best, returning $18.00 to win and $8.20 to place. My total return on today's bets (so far) gave me $327.50 on $82.00 in total wagers.

I do have one more outstanding wager in the Hollywood Turf Cup (a $10 exacta wheel with NORVSKY over BOURBOM BAY, FALCON ROCK, and MISS MATCH). In a worst-case scenario, I will head into the Thanksgiving stakes action with $414.50 in my bankroll.

I'll return later this weekend with a recap and thoughts on today's stakes action. Again, if you've stumbled across this blog, thanks for reading.

The Kennedy Road Stakes at Woodbine (G3)

Let's start with the grade 3 Kennedy Road at Woodbine, which is the first of six graded stakes today scheduled to be run between 3:27pm EST and 7:07pm EST. The Kennedy Road Stakes, run at 6f, is for 3yos and up. The field of six is headlined by HOLLYWOOD HIT, who has won two of four starts this year, including a $150k stakes race at 6.5f at Woodbine. The 8-5 ML favorite prefers to sit a length or two behind the pacesetter(s) and make one run entering the stretch. PASO DOBLE finished 10 lengths behind HOLLYWOOD HIT in the Bold Adventure, but has won two of three since and is making his third start of his current form cycle. GYPSY RING finished a neck behind REGALLY READY in a grade I turf sprint last out. REGALLY READY, of course, went on to win the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint a couple of weeks ago. SIGNATURE RED seems a step behind some of these, but did finish ahead of HOLLYWOOD HIT two back. ESSENCE HIT MAN should give his backers a brief thrill and if given a clear lead, may get brave late. Finally, FATAL BULLET was 9 1/2 lengths back of GYPSY RING in his last start, his first since August 28th. This one appears to be a few steps slower than many of these.

ESSENCE HIT MAN looks to be the lone speed here, but there should be a couple of others near him and FATAL BULLET and/or HOLLYWOOD HIT may decide to challenge him early. I'll look for GYPSY RING to come late here after narrowly losing to the BC Turf Sprint winner last time. I'll go with a $10 exacta wheel, GYPSY RING over PASO DOBLE and ESSENCE HIT MAN.

My bankroll for today's six races is $200, giving me an average of $33 per race. Typically, I will spend $20-50 on a given race depending on how confident I am of my opinion and the size of the field. With a six horse field in the opener, I am just looking for some action here. I am also a fan of the multi-race wagers and on those days where we see multiple graded stakes at the same track, I'll dive into those pk3 and pk4 pools.

Welcome!

Welcome to the First Off The Claim blog, your spot for insights on horse racing's biggest races each week along with commentary on the issues and news surrounding the sport of kings. Each week, you will find handicapping opinions on graded stakes from around the country. In addition, I will offer my selections and wagering strategies for the game's top races.

I'll be back later today with a discussion of the two year old races at Delta Downs, the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (Grade 3) and the Delta Downs Princess Stakes (Grade 3) along with the Hollywood Turf Cup (Grade 1) and the grade 3 races at Aqueduct, Churchill and Woodbine.

If you manage to stumble by this blog, thanks for reading.