Renee Definitely Has Zip

RENEESGOTZIP had no problems with the small field in the G2 Santa Ynez at Santa Anita Park yesterday, proving that she could be a force to reckon with in the 3yo filly scene this year. Her impressive 7+ length score in her stakes debut for trainer Peter Miller was her 2nd straight win to start her promising career. The even money favorite was no match for MADE TO LOVE her, who closed late to gain 2nd over PAINTED WOMAN. ROWDY GAL finished 4th, leaving me with no return on my $30 investment. RENEESGOTZIP will be tried at longer distances, according to trainer Peter Miller, and is one to watch on the road to the Kentucky Oaks.

We have one more graded stakes race on this Martin Luther King Jr. Day, the G2 San Gabriel on the turf at Santa Anita and contested over 1 1/8 miles. JERANIMO defends his title after winning this race in December of 2010 and is expected to go off as the odds on favorite. I'll try to beat him here with a couple of horses, THE USUAL Q.T. and IMPONENTE PURSE. Both runners have been close in various G1 and G2 events and loom the most logical contenders for the upset over NORVSKY (minor stakes his ceiling?), SANDOR (hasn't won in at least 18 months), and ASHTAR (0-for-4 in North America).

THE USUAL Q.T. has finished 2nd or 3rd in his last six races, including the Sunshine Millions Turf ran here last January. He was beaten by JERANIMO in this race last year, but THE USUAL Q.T. is more consistent. IMPONENTE PURSE ran 3rd in his last two races, both G2 events on the California circuit, after winning the G3 Sunset Handicap. I'll play four exacta tickets in this one: box THE USUAL Q.T. and IMPONENTE PURSE and then play those two on top of JERANIMO as a backup. We'll play the primary ticket at $10 and the backup for $5 for another $30 investment today.

Go cash some tickets!

In The Black For 2012

BALLADRY's late charge in the G2 San Fernando Stakes at Santa Anita gave me a winning exacta ticket as he nailed PRAYER FOR RELIEF at the wire to claim 2nd. TAPIZAR was much the best in this one and the even money favorite keyed a $20.90 exacta, which I had five times for a total score of $104.90.

In the two Gulfstream races, JACKSON BEND proved to be the class of the field and didn't show any signs of rust, winning the Hal's Hope in impressive fashion, swinging out around a wall of horses down the stretch and pulling away. I tossed him in my small exacta wager, but the play only cost me $12. In the Ft. Lauderdale, SILVER MEDALLION had to come from the back of the field to catch YUMMY WITH BUTTER in deep stretch to score another win on the turf for Todd Pletcher. This one is one to watch down the road, as he won despite soft early fractions and some trouble down the stretch. I would imagine the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap next month is a logical spot for this improving runner. My pick, SANTIVA, sat just behind those soft fractions set by MUTUAL TRUST, but didn't have anything to show when the real running began late.

So, one winning ticket out of the three should have given me a profit of $42.90 on the day, but I took a shot on RECONSTRUCTION in the ungraded California Derby at Golden Gate Fields. I thought this horse, trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, had a chance to steal this one on the lead, but the other Hollendorfer horse, RUSSIAN GREEK, took the win. The $20 win bet left me with a meager profit of $22.90 with two more graded stakes to go on this extended holiday weekend.

One of those races, the G2 Santa Ynez Stakes for 3yo fillies, will be run at Santa Anita later today. This race features a field of just six, but there is some talent here. RENEESGOTZIP was an impressive maiden winner last month and makes the immediate jump to graded company. This one has shown just two easy workouts since, but should be ready to run again. ROWDY GAL is 2-for-2 lifetime for John Sadler and make the logical jump to graded stakes company after winning an $80k OC last time out. This one, however, was a full second slower than RENEESGOTZIP in their two latest 6f wins. CANDREA disappointed when shipped out of California for the BC Juvenile Fillies (11th of 14) and the G3 Delta Downs Princess Stakes (9th of 10). She returns to familiar surroundings (and bute?) where she showed solid form in three starts prior to the BC effort. She turned in a bullet workout on 12/9/2011 and has been working steadily since then for Bob Baffert. Baffert has another entrant here, LADY HOKULEA, who may just be a rabbit to ensure solid fractions up front. MADE TO LOVE her drew the rail and makes her first graded stakes debut after winning the Moccasin Stakes in her final race of 2011. Finally, PAINTED WOMAN is 2-for-4 lifetime, winning a n1x allowance race two back prior to a 4th place finish in a minor stakes attempt. This one ships in from Keeneland and Woodbine and attracts Mike Smith.

RENEESGOTZIP could be anything and is likely to go off as the odds-on favorite. If she repeats her maiden voyage, she should handle this field even if CANDREA returns to her previous California form. However, the pace scenario could set things up for ROWDY GAL if RENEESGOTZIP gets involved in an early speed duel with LADY HOKULEA. I'll go with ROWDY GAL on top and bottom of exacta tickets with RENEESGOTZIP and MADE TO LOVE HER, who might be rounding into top form. We'll go $10 with ROWDY GAL on top and $5 underneath those two for a total investment of $30.

49-day Layoff Comes to an End

I've been out of the racing action for nearly 50 days due, mainly due to a family emergency and the holidays. But, it's a new year and the Triple Crown prep races will begin in earnest soon so now's the perfect time to jump back into things.

I'll recap the graded stakes activity for the first couple weeks of the new year later. In the meantime, we'll take a look at today's trio of graded stakes.

JACKSON BEND returns to the races in the G3 Hal's Hope at one mile on the dirt at Gulfstream Park. This one runs up against an average field that includes last year's winner, SOARING EMPIRE, and SUCCESSFUL MISSION, a runaway winner of the Elkwood Stakes at Monmouth and a G3 turf race at Calder in spring of 2011. If JACKSON BEND is anywhere near ready, he should handle this group, but if you're looking to score an upset, it's tough to look past those two and SANGAREE, who finished 2nd in the G3 Bold Ruler at Aqueduct in November. I'll likely make an action play here, a $2 exacta box: SOARING EMPIRE, SUCCESSFUL MISSION, and SANGAREE.

The G3 Ft. Lauderdale is up next and run at one mile on the turf at Gulfstream Park. UPTOWNCHARLEYBROWN dives back into the graded stakes scene for the first time since the 2011 Triple Crown trail, which culminated with a 5th place finish in the Belmont Stakes. He's trying turf for the first time (his 3rd place finish on the Polytrack at Keeneland suggests he should handle the surface switch). SANTIVA also returns from a grueling Triple Crown schedule that featured a 6th place finish in the Kentucky Derby and 8th in the Belmont. This one just missed in his return prep, a one mile turf allowance, and could offer value at 20-1 on the morning line. YUMMY WITH BUTTER is an accomplished G3 turf runner with two G3 wins at Monmouth last year. MUTUAL TRUST is making his first North American start and the first under the care of Bill Mott. The class of the field might be TEAKS NORTH, who won the G1 United Nations and the G3 Monmouth at Monmouth Park last summer and returns to the races for the first time since running next to last in the BC Turf. We also have FLAT OUT making his turf debut in his first start since third in the G1 Clark Handicap on Thanksgiving weekend. SILVER MEDALLION is another contender who has taken to the turf nicely since joining Todd Pletcher's barn.

I'll focus on SANTIVA here and play this one on top and underneath of SILVER MEDALLION, TEAKS NORTH, and MUTUAL TRUST. I'll go $6 with SANTIVA on top and $4 underneath for a total investment of $30.

Finally, in the G2 San Fernando at Santa Anita, PRAYER FOR RELIEF opens his 4yo campaign after a disappointing finish in the Clark Handicap last November (9th of 13). The Iowa Derby, West Virginia Derby, and Super Derby winner gets a much easier spot here with TAPIZAR, winner of the G3 Sham and 5th in the BC Dirt Mile, the main threat. IRISH ART finished 2nd in a G2 last time out and figures to be part of the outcome here, too. If you're looking for an upset, Eoin Harty's BALLADRY fits the bill. This one took a 40k OC two back and finished a very close 4th in a 62.5 OC last time. This one steps up into the graded stake ranks for the first time under a trainer you must respect.

I won't go too crazy here, but will play the two favorites, PRAYER FOR RELIEF and TAPIZAR on top and bottom of exactas with Harty's horse. We'll go with $5 both ways for a total investment of $20.

I'll check back in to recap, but until then, good luck at the windows.

Today's total investment: $62

$250k Guaranteed Pick 4 at Aqueduct: Live Blog

I'll be live blogging during the Aqueduct Pick 4 sequence, updating this post throughout the four races. I am putting together some alternative Pick 4 plays in case my selections don't come through in the Demoiselle.

Between 2:22pm EST and 4:42pm EST, we'll have seven graded stakes go to post beginning with the aforementioned Demoiselle and ending with the G2 Golden Rod Stakes at Churchill Downs. There are three more graded stakes events this evening between 5:42pm EST and 7:38pm EST, highlighted by a couple of G2s from Churchill Downs and Hollywood Park.

With all apologies to the Claiming Crown, welcome to the last major day of racing in 2011!

Updated 2:35pm EST: My top selection in the Demoiselle failed to run today and finished last, leaving me to whittle down my pick 4 play. I have settled on the following "A" horses for each race: 1,7/3/2,6,8/5,7,9; and these "C" horses: 3,10/1,4/4,5,7,10/3,6,8. To hit the pick 4, I'll need all "A" horses to come through or three "As" and one "C". My all "A" ticket will be for $1.5 and the remaining four tickets will be the minimum of $.50 for a total play of $75. I have 20 horses live in my wagers.

Updated 3:00pm EST: So much for that. The word was out on O'PRADO AGAIN as that one opened up at 5-2 and went off at 7-1 from his 15-1 ML. I guess you can say that he had a win at the distance and put in a solid workout on Nov 19th, but I didn't see this one getting up first in this one. That's horse racing, especially at the 2yo level. I won't let my handicapping of the next two races go to waste as I may put a small win bet on HAYNESFIELD and try to find a price in the Gazelle.

Updated 3:12pm EST: I eschewed the win bet on HAYNESFIELD in favor of an exacta play while taking a stand against TO HONOR AND SERVE. There have been a handful of also-rans from the BC that have returned recently and put in poor performances. I think this one will join that trend. I'll play a $10 exacta HAYNESFIELD over the entry and HYMN BOOK and reverse it for $5.

Updated 3:26pm EST: It's not my day. The horse I took a stand against, the 3yo TO HONOR AND SERVE, beat older horses fairly easily with one of my underneath horses, HYMN BOOK, coming through for the place. I may be down, but not out. I'll be back with a selection in the Gazelle.

Updated 3:49pm EST: I settled on LOVE AND PRIDE in a $20 WP wager. I think she has more tactical speed than you see on paper and will get the jump on the speed. I backed that up with a tri wheel, keying R GYPSY GOLD over the 1,7,8 over the field for a total investment of $64.

Updated 4:02pm EST: That hurt, too. LOVE AND PRIDE was run down by the unbeaten filly AWESOME FEATHER and got nipped for the place in the final jumps, costing me a consolation. I'm now down to my final $18 before I need to reload and will look to beat the heavy favorite in the G3 Fred W Hooper Handicap at Calder. I'll play JIMANATOR over MAMBO MEISTER for $15 and reverse it for $3. MAMBO MEISTER should handle the field, but JIMANATOR looks like he is in good form and the top choice for the upset.

Updated 4:26pm EST: We dodged the reload bullet when JIMANATOR was all out to run down 2-5 favorite MAMBO MEISTER, returning $109.50 on my $15 exacta. I'll take some of those winnings and put a $25 WP wager on SIMMARD, who invades Florida for Roger Attfield, who won a turf stakes earlier this week with a similar invader at Calder Race Course. SIMMARD is currently 9-1.

Updated 4:49pm EST: I should have just played the Roger Attfield exacta as MUSKETIER took the easy route up the hedge to get past stablemate SIMMARD as those two run 1-2 for a $49.60 exacta. I get back $82.50 for the place wager, but gave $50 awau when hooked on Woodbine shippers, putting $25 WP on SPIRITED MISS in G2 Golden Rod Stakes at Churchill Downs. ON FIRE BABY took that one, which was a logical selection based off her win in the G2 Pocahontas at the same track. We get a little bit of a breather before the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club in approximately 50 minutes.

Boosting the Bankroll

The G2 Demoiselle for 2yo fillies at Aqueduct represents the last chance to build my bankroll prior to the pick 4 starting in the 7th race, the G2 Remsen Stakes for 2yo colts.

The field for this one is less than desirable. The top Beyer in the field was posted by DISPOSABLEPLEASURE in a 11-length Maiden Special Weight victory at Belmont for Todd Pletcher, and six of the ten horses have failed to break 70 in their brief careers. Only a handful of runners catch my attention here:

CAPTIVATING LASS won a 1 mile 70 yard race at Parx in her debut and is out of A.P. INDY so the added distance should not be an issue. She is eligible to improve in her 2nd career start under the care of Kiaran McLaughlin.

WILDCAT'S SMILE hasn't done anything wrong in three minor stakes for NY breds, including a win the NY Breeders Futurity against the boys. The only problem, two of those races came at Finger Lakes, however she has been steadily improving.

AWALKINTHEMOONLITE tries dirt for the first time after winning the Gold Digger Stakes on the turf at Hawthorne. This one comes from the clouds and may not have the early fractions to run at.

LADY COHIBA is unbeaten in two starts, including the May Night Stakes in the slop at Aqueduct. She's part of an entry with recent maiden winner WEE PARTY.

INDYNIABLE may be my eventual play. This daughter of A.P. INDY won a seven furlong maiden race at Keeneland in October and travels to NY for Christophe Clement specifically for this race. She should relish the extra distance and has every right to improve in her third career start.

I will use that one on top and bottom of exacta plays with the ML favorite, CAPTIVATING LASS, and WILDCAT'S SMILE for $5.

An Early Look at the Pick 4 Sequence

34 runners are entered and escaped the morning scratch list for the $250k guaranteed pick 4 at Aqueduct today and through my first pass, I have only completely eliminated nine runners. My early grid looks like this:

Race A B C

7 1,7 9 2,3,4,10

8 3 5 1,4

9 2,6,8 7 4,5,10

10 5,7,9 8 3,6

If I play $.50 cent tickets, I can use every horse above and have $2 on all As, $1.5 on all As and one B, $1 on two As and two Bs, and $.50 on all As and one C for an investment of $174.50. That will consume the majority of my bankroll and may leave me on the outside looking in of the final six graded stakes later this afternoon.

I really like HAYNESFIELD in the Cigar Mile. He likes Aqueduct and is making his 2nd start off a layoff. While a mile may not be his ideal distance, he finished 2nd in this race last year. If he rates and can make one big run late, he can take this weak grade 1 race whose ML favorite is a 3yo with one G2 win in 2011.

EDIT: I'll work on the table formatting for future posts.

A Tough Beat

First, just a quick look back at yesterday's races before we jump into today's busy afternoon with ten graded stakes at four different tracks, including four at Aqueduct for Cigar Mile Day.

SUMMER SOIREE did what was expected in the G1 Matriarch at Hollywood Park, getting a jump on the field and using her quick early speed to try to wire the field. However, one of the horses I used underneath, STAR BILLING, slipped through on the inside and battled my top choice through the entire stretch, getting up in the final strides. It was the only race all day that I did not reverse my exacta play and it cost me. The $1 exacta with the $23.80 horse on top paid $71.60, costing me over $350 for not playing the $5 backup exacta wheel.

In the end, I went 0-for-5 and saw my bankroll dip to $215. That's not the kind of scenario I was hoping for, especially kicking the day off with a potential pk4 play at Aqueduct.

In other races, MORE THAN LOVE won the Miesque Stakes at Hollywood Park, paying $4 to win. My choice, KATIE'S TEN, appeared to not take to the turf as expected and finished 6th of seven. LOVELY LIL led every step of the way and took the Go For Wand Stakes at Aqueduct as the longest shot in the field, returning $33.80 to win and $101.50 in the exacta with the favorite, ALL DUE RESPECT. At Golden Gate, OUR NAUTIQUE took the All American Stakes over the always-a-bridesmaid-never-a-bride BOLD CHIEFTIAN in a logical 1-2 finish. I tried to get too cute with this one, using the longest shot in the field over the 1-2-3 finishers in an exacta play, but my horse finished next to last. The $1 exacta in the 6-horse field paid a nice $18.70.

WISE DAN won the G1 Clark Handicap, which didn't do anything to clear up the muddied Horse of the Year race. WISE DAN made his move around the far turn and won easily with unusable MISSION IMPAZIBLE second and the disappointing-at-Churchill-Downs FLAT OUT third. WISE DAN returned $11.00 to his faithful backers. I had this one on top in my trifecta, but threw out the place horse and tried to take the trifecta without the favorite hitting the board. It paid $375.60.

So, a close but no cigar day yesterday leaving me with work to do in order for me to build my bankroll back up. I'll return later with thoughts on today's graded stakes (and maybe even a n1x allowance race for NY breds as the final leg in today's $250k guaranteed pick 4 at Aqueduct).